Population Dynamics in the Context of the Post-2015 Development Agenda

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Population dynamics and sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) will have a major impact on the post-2015 development agenda and the achievement of developmental and environmental sustainability. Population dynamics comprises trends and changes in population growth; migration; urbanization; population density; and age structures, and associated with the latter, young and older people. Population dynamics influence consumption and availability of natural resources, and together with consumption levels and efficiencies determine environmental sustainability. Addressing population dynamics in ways that respect and protect human rights must therefore be part of the solution, alongside other important sustainable development strategies, including those addressing unsustainable and inequitable patterns of consumption, while recognizing that a post 2015 framework needs to be putting consumption of resources on a sustainable and equitable trajectory.

Population growth will occur mainly in developing countries. With relatively high birth rates and a high proportion of young people, populations of least developed countries are projected to double from 803 million in 2010 to 1.7 billion by 2050 and to almost triple to 2.5 billion by 2085. This is likely to undermine poverty alleviation and economic growth, and outpace investments in health, education and other basic services.

Fertility decline, combined with increased longevity, means an increase in the number and proportion of people aged 60 and over, with the global total rising from the current 810 million worldwide to more than 2 billion by 2050. There will also be large rises in young people because of population momentum. International migration has increased by almost 40 percent since 1990, reaching 214 million annually in 2010 and is expected to continue to rise, with significant consequences for both origin and host countries. Internal migration is also rising, with increasing numbers moving from rural to urban areas, in addition to seasonal migration. More than half of humanity now lives in urban areas, a third in slums, and numbers are expected to increase.

Under-pinning population dynamics, promotion of SRHR is an essential component of the post-2015 development agenda. Originally missing from the Millennium Development Goals, SRHR was partially addressed as Target 5B in 2007, as part of MDG 5, which is the MDG that is most off-track. This omission should not be repeated in the post-2015 framework. SRHR, within a human-rights framework and addressing the unmet need for family planning, offer opportunities to influence population dynamics positively and contribute to sustainable development while addressing gender inequality and women’s empowerment. Without the inclusion of comprehensive sexuality education and access to youth-friendly services, the needs of young people will not be met.

This paper includes a comprehensive set of recommendations that are essential for the post-2015 development agenda.(See page 14)

INTRODUCTION

The process for framing the post-2015 development agenda has identified eleven areas for consideration.i Of these, population dynamics, including sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR), is critically important for the others in working for the achievement of the post-2015 development agenda and for inclusive development. It has a major impact on the development agenda’s fundamental principles of human rights, equality and sustainability, and the core dimensions of inclusive social development, environmental sustainability and peace and security.

Population dynamics includes trends and changes in population growth; migration; urbanization; population density; and age structures, and associated with the latter, young people and the elderly. Under-pinning all of these is SRHR.

Discourse on the post-2015 development agenda has focused on sustainable development, poverty alleviation, environmental sustainability and specific development priorities. Population dynamics has attracted less attention, despite population size, location etc, shaping and determining the scale and scope of development challenges and influencing the achievement of sustainable development and poverty eradication. Development planning and policies should monitor and address population dynamics in ways that respect and protect human rights and advance SRHR as part of sustainable and inclusive development and poverty eradication.

KEY ELEMENTS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS

Overview

Mortality, fertility and migration drive population changes and influence age structure and population distribution, urbanization and population density. Rapid population growth increases the proportion of young people while, as mortality and fertility rates decline, the proportion of older people increases. This process is the demographic transition: the changes that take place as countries move from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility. During this transition, population growth and movement occur, including internal, rural to urban and international migration.iii

Least developed countries are typically in the second stage of demographic transition, experiencing rapid increases in population size and density and, because of the high proportion of young people, high youth dependency ratios. Other developing countries are in the third stage of transition with declining fertility, yet due to demographic momentum (the phenomenon of continued population growth beyond the time that replacement level fertility has been reached, because of the relatively high proportion of the population in their reproductive years) population growth continues. As the fourth stage is reached and demographic transition achieved, as seen in developed countries, the profile of the population ages.iv Population dynamics and trends, particularly given their interaction with social inequalities, strongly influence the capacity of countries to achieve development goals.v

Population Growth

The world’s population doubledvi between 1965 and 2010, reaching 7 billion in 2011. According to the UN’s medium variant, it will reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10 billion by 2085. In contrast, the UN’s high projection variant, (with fertility just half a child above that in the medium variant), projects a world population of 10.6 billion in 2050 and 15.8 billion in 2100.vii The increase in least developed countries is projected to be from 803 million in 2010 to 1.7 billion in 2050, then almost tripling to 2.5 billion by 2085, due to relatively high birth rates and a high proportion of young people. The rate of growth and size at which the world population ultimately stabilizes significantly affects the world’s potential to reach its development goals.

Growth is driven by increasing longevity, an above replacement birth rate and increases in the number of people reaching maturity arising from past population growth. Global average life expectancy at birth has increased from under 50 in the 1950s to around 70 today and is projected to reach 80 before the end of the century. Life expectancy varies widely, while generally rising. The global average fertility rate has fallen, from just under 5 children per woman in the 1950s to around 2.5 today, varying from under 2 for more developed countries to around 4 for the least developed countries.

Longevity is projected to continue to rise, although there are increasing risks of catastrophic ecological failure, given climate change, soil erosion and limits to water and other resources. Future population growth is also related to future fertility levels, which depend on access to family planning, the reproductive choices of present and future generations and economic, social, educational and political factors.

Population growth, with related rises in demand for food, water, land, energy and other resources, increases pressures on the environment and on the commitment of policy makers to address these challenges. As this growth will be mainly in developing countries, it may undermine poverty alleviation and economic growth, outpacing investments in health, education and other basic services. Slowing population growth can alleviate pressures on the environment and on natural resources, energy and water, and services, particularly at the local level. However, limiting population growth would not necessarily mean that humanity would be living within the carrying capacity of the Earth, which is already being significantly exceeded.viii Due to vastly inequitable consumption patterns, particularly in the Global North, it is the rich minority who pose most of the greatest global threats to the environment, with impacts that touch the lives of many of the world’s poorest people. This points to the importance of a post- 2015 development framework that considers and addresses the influence of both population- and consumption-related factors.

In summary, “demography is not destiny”, it is not pre-destined (policies, cultural values and programmes can affect it), nor are its impacts strictly determined. Where there are universal, adequate, affordable and accessible sexual and reproductive health services that respect and protect rights, women’s health has improved, maternal mortality declined and fertility fallen. Investment in sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) and in health, education and gender equality therefore advances development prospects and achieves the demographic transition in developing countries, while stabilizing the world population, thereby contributing to sustainable development.

Population Ageing

Fertility decline and increased longevity mean increasing numbers and proportion of people aged 60 and over; currently there are 810 million worldwide, with a projection of 2 billion by 2050. Changing family structures mean less family support for older people. Governments should provide services to protect the rights of the elderly, including social security and health care, suitable housing and transportation systems.

Providing for the elderly is a problem in developed countries due to the demographic transition, as well as for low and increasingly middle income countries.ix. Factors such as migration and the HIV pandemic mean that there are increasing numbers of ‘skipped generation’ households in some regions, with older carers bringing up grandchildren.x

Data on older people, disaggregated by sex, is required. Evidence-based policies are also required to ensure that both men and women are able to enjoy their rights to full, productive and remunerative employment that encourages savings, with pensions and social security measures in place to provide for those older persons in need of support. Support is also important in situations for grandparent care and skipped generation households, recognizing the needs and rights of both older persons and the children in their care.xi

Young People

Today’s generation of young people is the largest ever, with 1.2 billion aged 15-24, which will have a major impact on Government policies and development strategies.

With their capacity for creativity and innovation, growing numbers of young people can make an enormous contribution in countries in the developing world, in addition to the challenges they pose. Governments must have in place the necessary laws and policies to foster the innate innovative capacity of their youth. Promoting lower birth rates while increasing employment rates, societies can profit from the so-called demographic bonus.

Policies and strategies should include access to quality education, training and employment opportunities for all young people, particularly for girls and young women, to enable them to earn incomes. Young people must also have access to comprehensive sexuality education and youth-friendly sexual and reproductive health information and services, which address barriers including discrimination, social stigma and lack of confidentiality. Together these will allow young people to delay marriage and family responsibilities for as long as they wish and to plan their pregnancies.xii

Migration

Migration occurs for reasons including economic disparities, low-cost transportation, improved communication and migrant networks,xiii with short-term positive outcomes for some migrants, but conflict and persecution may also be major causes. Climate change, falls in food and water supplies and rising sea levels may also increase future migration. Internal migration takes place within countries, including from rural to urban areas. It may be seasonal and not always permanent. Migration includes undocumented migration and the displacement of people as refugees.

Migration has increased by almost 40 percent since 1990, reaching 214 million annually in 2010, and is expected to continue to rise. Large-scale migration can have significant consequences for both origin and host countries, including transfer of labour and skills, transfer of funds via remittances and other payments, and reducing resource pressures in countries of origin, while increasing it in host countries.

For some people seeking better socio-economic conditions migration is the only option. Women migrants may be adversely affected, particularly as refugees or undocumented migrants. The increase in adolescents and children, migrating often alone and without family support, should be noted, as 33 million migrants are under 20, representing 16% of all migrants, with 11 million aged between 15 and 19 years.xiv

Migrant-responsive policies are important, including proper documentation and full information. Migration should take place in safe and legal conditions, respecting human rights. In addition, the root causes of undocumented migration and human trafficking should be addressed. Women migrants may be particularly adversely affected, especially as refugees or undocumented migrants, while children must be protected from abuse and exploitation commonly associated with trafficking and assured fair treatment and equitable access to education and other services in destination countries.xv

Urbanization

Over half of humanity lives in urban areas and this is expected to increase. One third live in slums with numbers expected to rise due to population growth and internal migration.xvi The Future We Want, the Rio+20 outcome document, emphasizes that well-planned cities can promote economically, socially and environmentally sustainable societies. This requires a holistic approach for affordable housing and infrastructure and prioritizing slum upgrading and urban regeneration, including “a safe and healthy living environment for all, particularly children, youth, women, elderly and disabled”.xvii

Cities and urban areas must ensure access to education, health and other social services and employment opportunities. To avoid isolation and being confined to their homes, vulnerable groups including women, youth, children and those with disabilities must have adequate infrastructure and transportation. The specific needs of children should also be considered.

Social Processes and Individual Capabilities and Choices

Population dynamics can contribute to better policies and programmes that advance the welfare of communities, families and individuals. Some population dynamics mechanisms work through aggregate processes: a larger proportion of working age people in the overall population, coupled with investment in health, education and SRHR and with policies conducive to job creation, can increase total savings and investment and spur economic growth and poverty reduction.xviii A parallel mechanism operates at family and individual level: a smaller family with multiple earners can save more and/or invest in a higher quality of life and opportunities for its members.xix

The impacts of population dynamics do not always have such direct analogies. Increases in education, decreases in child mortality and other social changes that support decisions to delay marriage and family formation and reduce desired family sizes, for example, have substantial impact on the pace of demographic change through attitude and behavioral change. Smaller families also mean reduced competition for household resources and facilitate more collaborative relationships. The number of siblings can impact the extent of social networks and the balance between intra-familial and other social relations and provide challenges and options for old-age support for parents. Changing fertility patterns affect the duration of a generation (with implications for population momentum). Migration is often higher among relatively young adults, again changing household composition, and remittances can improve family welfare and alter power relationsxx. In different settings, the gender profile of migrants (especially labour migrants) varies. Intergenerational relations are also affected by the dispersion of formerly more settled extended family structures. Wealth flows in most settings are directed from older to younger family members but might require public programmatic intervention to ensure life quality through the life cycle.

In short, population dynamics are manifested through the options and institutional structures available (in families, communities and beyond) as well as the ability of individuals to enhance their status and dignity. Protection, promotion and free exercise of individuals’ social, political and economic rights are essential to these processes.

Population Dynamics and Consumption

Humanity’s impact on the environment is determined by population size, consumption levels and efficiency levels of resource consumption. Population dynamics, not only population size but also factors such as population density, ageing, urbanization and migration influence consumption and availability of natural resources, including land and water. The linkages between population dynamics, consumption levels and environmental sustainability are highly complex as well as sensitive, in part because of vast demographic and consumption disparities at the local, nation and global levels. The vast majority of projected population growth is due to take place in developing countries and amongst the poorest populations with the lowest per capita consumption rates. In the developed world, however, population growth is not an issue, yet the per capita consumption rates are on average much higher.xxi When considering the relationship between population dynamics and environmental sustainability, it is therefore necessary also to consider consumption inequities.

Humanity is currently using 50 per cent more resources than the Earth can sustainably provide, and unless we change our consumption patterns that number will grow very fast – by 2030, even two planets will not be enough. The consumption of resources is highly unjust and unequal. If all of humanity lived like an average Indonesian, for example, only two-thirds of the planet’s bio-capacity would be used; if everyone lived like an average Argentinean, humanity would demand more than half an additional planet; and if everyone lived like an average resident of the USA, a total of four Earths would be required to regenerate humanity’s annual demand on nature. The excessive use of limited resources by more affluent sectors of the global population, linked to growing levels of inequity between and within nations as well as increasing numbers of people, drives pressure on the Earth’s resources and its capacity to support us.

An urgent global priority that the post 2015 framework needs to address is supporting all sectors of the expanding population to consume resources more efficiently and equitably. In essence, both population and consumption issues are of critical relevance to the post-2015 agenda. Without addressing both simultaneously sustainable development cannot be achieved.

IMPORTANCE OF ACCESS TO SEXUAL AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH RIGHTS

ICPD Programme of Action

Securing universal access to sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) is a goal in itself and is critical for achieving social, economic and environmental development. The interrelationships between population, sexual and reproductive health, development and the environment were recognized in the Programme of Action (PoA) of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD).xxii

The ICPD PoA defined sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights within primary health care systems, including addressing the unmet need for family planning, maternal mortality and morbidity, unsafe abortion, sexuality and sexually transmitted infections, including HIV and AIDS.xxiii Gender equality and women’s empowerment are central guiding principles, as are the specific sexual and reproductive health needs of adolescents and vulnerable groups, including older persons, those with disabilities and indigenous people. Most important, the ICPD PoA is rooted in respect for human rights and the need to address gender-based violence and harmful practices.

Sexual and reproductive health and rights and the MDGs: the unfinished agenda for post-2015

SRHR were not included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), although maternal health was included in MDG5. This was partially rectified in 2007 with the introduction of MDG Target 5B on Universal access to reproductive health by 2015.

MDG 5: Improve maternal health is the most ‘off-track’ MDG with Target 5A Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio, only being met, or expected to be met, by 2015 in two sub-regions – Eastern Asia and the Caucuses and Central Asia.Target 5B has only been achieved, or is expected to be achieved, in Eastern Asia.xxiv While births to women aged 15 to 19 years fell between 1990 and 2000, the rate of decline has slowed, or reversed, subsequently in most regions. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to have the highest adolescent birth rate (120 births per 1,000 adolescent women).

The significant increases in contraceptive use that occurred in the 1990s have not been sustained. While women and couples “have the basic right to decide freely and responsibly the number, spacing and timing of their children…”xxv and more than half of all women aged 15 to 49, married or in a union, were using some form of contraception in 2010, the contraceptive prevalence rate of women in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania was only 25 percent. The unmet need for family planning, i.e. “the percentage of women aged 15 to 49, married or in a union, who report the desire to delay or avoid pregnancy, but are not using any form of contraception”, has declined only slowly since 1990.xxvi Moreover, it will probably expand sharply as the number of young people grows and as urbanization and globalization affect social structures. Girls who are married early or who are living on the streets are especially vulnerable with limited rights and access to sexual and reproductive health services.

Given the investment to date and the progress in some regions and sub-regions, a strong argument can be made for the inclusion of SRHR in the post-2015 development framework. This will also influence population dynamics, with positive implications for sustainable development priorities, including poverty alleviation, equity, health, education, food and water security, gender equality and environmental sustainability.

Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights Agenda Post-2015

An estimated 222 million women and girls in developing countries have an unmet need for modern contraception.xxvii 40 percent of pregnancies worldwide are unintended, leading to 21 million unsafe abortions and 47,000 maternal deaths each year.xxviiiThe Family Planning 2020 initiative has led to a commitment to provide voluntary family planning services to an additional 120 million women and girls in the world’s poorest countries by 2020.xxix Investment in family planning is cost effective – for every dollar spent, 2-6 (US) dollars can be saved for other development interventions.xxx

Funding is also required for health services other than family planning, as part of comprehensive rights-based sexual and reproductive health services. Sustained funding and appropriate policies are necessary at all levels, including for health workers and essential medicines; comprehensive sexuality education; universal access to affordable, adequate, accessible sexual and reproductive health care, and information respecting reproductive and sexual rights, including for marginalized groups, such as young people, undocumented migrants, people with disabilities, people living with HIV and AIDS, drug users and sex workers.

POPULATION DYNAMICS AND SEXUAL AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND RIGHTS – cross- cutting and under-pinning the evolving post-2015 development framework

Economic and Social Development

The size, structure and spatial distribution of the population has implications for economic growth, sustainable development and prosperity, by influencing labor markets, income distribution, pressure on resources and infrastructures, poverty and social protection and pension schemes.

Access to voluntary family planning services and the resulting falling birth ratesxxxi and smaller families can mean more disposable income for households, fewer children to support and more opportunities for paid employment for women. Countries can benefit from the demographic bonus resulting from the voluntary decrease in fertility rates and the corresponding increase in the employed proportion of the population, if employment opportunities, education, investments in women’s and girls’ health and other requirements are in place.

Conversely, the high population growth of many developing countries contributes to preventing the breaking of vicious poverty circles, slowing human development and undermining initiatives for economic prosperity and poverty alleviation.

Environmental sustainability

As outlined in section 2.7, population dynamics has implications for consumption and availability of natural resources, and therefore environmental sustainability. Population growth is highest in the world’s poorest countries, which are also most vulnerable to food and water insecurity. In these countries population growth can undermine climate change adaptation and poverty reduction by exacerbating pressure on resources. Meeting the need for sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) services, including voluntary family planning, would support climate adaptation and increase resilience in ecologically fragile areas. Without sound policies to manage the environment, population growth contributes to environmental issues such as soil degradation and erosion, fresh water scarcity, migration, deforestation and shortages of farmlandxxxiias well as reductions in natural habitat and biodiversity, particularly at a local level.

At the global level, the links between population growth and environmental sustainability are more complex. The consumption patterns of richer populations have a far greater impact on environmental sustainability at a global level than the

consumption of poorer populations. In fact, high-income countries have a footprint five times greater than that of low-income countries.xxxiii

Food, water and energy

Population growth is likely to undermine progress towards achieving food, water and energy security for the global population, particularly because the vast majority of projected population growth will take place in the world’s poorest countries, where water shortages are severe and hunger is prevalent. By 2030, the world will need an estimated 50 percent more food and energy; and 30 percent more water because of increased demand because of population growth and increasing per capita consumption.xxxivGlobal food prices are already rising, due in part to stock situations and to financial speculations, while water scarcity is increasing. Moreover, food production is being impacted by alarming climate change, as well as by the depletion of natural resources such as fish stocks and water for agriculture, and by limited availability of inputs such as clean energy and fertile land.

A post 2015 framework should deliver food, water and energy for all, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.

Health

Health, including SRHR, is critical for human and sustainable development, with ‘the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health’ as a recognized human right.xxxvReducing unplanned pregnancies would reduce maternal

and infant/child mortality and morbidity and alleviate pressure on limited health resources.Health services should consider the needs of both women and girls and men and boys throughout their lives.

Education and employment

Links between education, sexual and reproductive health rights, and women’s empowerment are multiple and mutually reinforcing. SRHR are linked to achieving universal access to,and completion of,education for girls by combatting early and forced marriage,early pregnancy,HIV and AIDS and other sexual and reproductive health issues thatprevent young people, particularly girls, from attending school and from completing their education.Comprehensive sexuality education, both in and out of school and for both girls and boys,together with youth- friendly sexual and reproductive health services, are critical for empowering girls and young people.

Education is itself a means to promote SRHR and to enable women to control their fertility. Girls who go to school are more likely to delay sexual initiation and to make more informed, empowered choices. Women with seven or more years of schooling have fewer children than those who have not been to school, and their children are healthier and better educated. Similarly, enabling women to determine the timing and spacing of their pregnancies will allow them to take advantage of opportunities for education and employment.

Gender inequality and women’s and girls’ empowerment

SRHR empowers women and transforms their economic and social position, increasing their opportunities for education, employment and full participation in society.

Women and girls should not be subjected to harmful practices such as female genital mutilation/cutting, early and forced marriage, early pregnancy, domestic and gender- based violence, rape and sexual coercion, pre-natal sex selection and infanticide, honour crimes and widow inheritance and sexual harassment, all of which dis-empower them.

Conflict, violence and disaster

High rates of population growth or density can lead to conflict over resources or dissatisfaction with insufficient employment or inheritance opportunities, particularly in resource poor settings. This can contribute to political instability and the creation of fragile states. Population pressures can also increase vulnerability to disasters, by forcing people onto marginal land or areas of greater risk, and by contributing to household poverty. Increasing access to rights-based family planning programmes can reduce population-related pressures and increase resilience.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The following recommendations are made in the context of the post-2015 development agenda:

Promote as a framework the outcomes of relevant international processes, particularly ICPD Beyond 2014 and Rio+20, that comprehensively addresses the social, economic and environmental pillars of sustainable development, including population- and consumption-related factors and the nexus between population dynamics, sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR), gender equality and sustainable development, creatingsynergy and coherence.
Include population dynamics and SRHR in the post-2015 development agenda, within a human-rights based and gender-sensitive framework, recognizing the inter-related benefits that universal access to SRHR, employment opportunities for women and promotion by voluntary means of the existing trend to smaller families bring to gender equality, population and environmental sustainability.
Ensure development goals, planning and policies, including for health, education, food and water security, environment and wider poverty reduction programmes, consider, address and monitor population dynamics, and advance SRHR as part of sustainable and inclusive development and poverty eradication.
Ensure development goals are based on projected changes in population size, location etc., which influence demand for and supply of essential resources and services, and population data is used for planning, monitoring, reporting and accountability mechanisms, including, where relevant, data disaggregated by sex, age and rural/ urban etc.
Prioritise universal access to SRHR, including providing voluntary family planning and youth-friendly services, increasing demand for SRHR services, promoting integration of reproductive health and HIV/AIDS programmesand encouragingmale participation within the context of the ICPD Programme of Action and the Beijing Platform of Action.
Address both population- and consumption-related factors, shifting consumption patterns onto a sustainable and equitable pathway with goals for sustainable consumption for all countries. Responsibilities will differ between countries and there is an imperative for richer countries and populations to reduce their per capita consumption of resources, while poorer populations will need to increase their per capita consumption.
Improve transparency and accountability in the provision of SRHR services through, for example, the involvement of the private sector, introducing results-based financial systems, and greater involvement of civil society, particularly in strengthening maternal mortality surveillance, reducing under-registration, preventing default and improving maternal deaths classification.
Reduce migratory pressures while respecting the human rights of migrants, including child migrants, eliminate forced female migration such as bride importation, forced marriages and trafficking and seek to improve living standards for those living in slums, rural and hard to reach areas and refugee/migrant camps.
Provide quality education and training at all levels, particularly secondary education for girls, including reducing user fees in a properly phased and responsible manner; ensuring safe school environment and access for girls; enabling adolescent mothers and pregnant girls to continue their education; and ensuring a full curriculum including comprehensive sexuality education.
Provide decent employment opportunities for young people and women to enable them to earn a sustained livelihood and be financially independent; establish and enforce rights-based policies to address early and forced marriage and early childbearing.
Include in relevant SRHR programmes the specific needs of older people, including those dealing with skipped generations, and of other marginalized groups such as people living with HIV and men who have sex with men.

This paper is issued on behalf of the Beyond 2015 campaign. The original draft was produced by a drafting team comprised of the following Beyond 2015 organizations: Campaign 2015+, Christian Relief & Development Association; Commonwealth Medical Trust;International Planned Parenthood Federation; Population Matters; Population and Sustainability Network; Women Deliver; and with the coordinating efforts of the Christian Relief & Development Association and the Commonwealth Medical Trust. The drafting process consisted of a thorough literature review and team drafting. The draft was circulated to the campaign for review. Comments and feedback were received from 11 organizations. The redrafting was coordinated by the team, and it was possible to incorporate most of the inputs received. In accordance with the Beyond 2015 protocol on forming policy positions…

Thanks go to the drafting team comprised of the members of the following organizations: Meshesha Shewarga (Christian Relief & Development Association; Marianne Haslegrave (Commonwealth Medical Trust); Sarah Shaw (International Planned Parenthood Federation); Sarah Fisher (Population and Sustainability Network); Simon Ross (Population Matters); Tola Winjobi (Campaign 2015+ International) and Joanna Hoffman (Women Deliver)Thanks also go to individuals of contributing organizations:

CAFSO-WRAG for Development, Nigeria; EuroNGOs; Kigen Korir (Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights Alliance (SRHR Alliance-Kenya)).

ENDNOTES

i The areas identified are: Inequalities, Environmental sustainability; Health; Water; Food; Energy; Education; Employment; Conflict, violence and disaster; Governance; and Population Dynamics.

iiUnited Nations System Task Team on the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda. 2012. Realizing the Future We Want for All.

iiiThe Royal Society (2012) People and planet.London. ivIbid.

v UNDESA & UNFPA (2012) Population Dynamics Thematic Think Piece produced for the UN System Task Team on the post-2015 Development Agenda.

viUnited Nations Population Division 2011. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York viiIbid

viii WWF (2012) Living Planet Report 2012. Gland: WWF.

ixGlobal Footprint Network Ecological Footprint for Nations 2010.

x UNFPA and HelpAge International (2012) Aging in the 21st Century. A Celebration and a Challenge United Nations Population Fund, New York and HelpAge International, London and EveryChild and HelpAge (2012) Family First.Prioritising Support to Kinship Carers, especially older carersEveryChild, London

xiEveryChild and HelpAge (2012) Family First.Prioritising Support to Kinship Carers, especially older carersEveryChild, London

xiiFormore information see See Africa’s Demographic Challenges: http://www.berlin- institut.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Afrika/Africas_demographic_challenges.pdf

xiii. Population Dynamics. Thematic Think Piece

xivUNICEF (2012) International Migration of Children and Adolescents. Facts and Figures UNICEF, New York

xv Save the Children (2012) Voices of Children on the Move. Submission to the UN CRC Committee Day of General Discussion Save the Children, London

xviUN-Habitat The Challenge of Slums 2003

xviiUnited Nations Conference on Sustainable Development. 2012. The Future We Want. Paras 134-135. New York. xviiiBloom, D.E., Canning, D., and Sevilla, J. 2003.The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Santa Monica: Rand.

xix The familial (micro-level) impacts of population dynamics were acknowledged even in the macro-level skeptical reports of the 1980s (see National Academy of Science. 1986. Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions. Washington: National Acadeimies Press and Birdsall, N., Kelley, A.C. and Sinding, S. 2001. Population matters: Demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world. New York: Oxford University Press).

xx UNFPA. 2006. International migration and the Millennium Development Goals. New York: UNFPA. UNFPA. 2006. Moving Young.Youth Supplement to the State of World Population Report. New York: UNFPA.

xxi Stephenson, J., Newman., K and Mayhew, S (2010) “Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?” Journal of Public Health, 32, 2, pp. 150-156.

xxii United Nations. 1994. Report of the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 5-13 September 1995. A/CoNF.171/13, chapter IV xxiiiIbid. paras 7.2, 7.3, 7.6

xxiv United Nations. 2012. The Millennium Development Goals Report 2012. New York xxvUnited Nations. 1994. Report ICPD paras 7.3,

xxvi United Nations. 2012. MDG Report

xxvii Singh, S. and Darroch, J. E (2012) Adding It Up: Costs and Benefits of Contraceptive Services – Estimates for 2012. New York: Guttmacher Institute and United Nations Population Fund.

xxviii Singh, S., Sedgh, G., and Hussain, R. (2010) Unintended Pregnancy: Worldwide Levels, Trends and Outcomes. Studies in Family Planning .41, 4, 241-250. xxixhttp://www.londonfamilyplanningsummit.co.uk/1530%20FINAL%20press%20release.pdf

xxx Moreland, S &Talbird, S. 2006. Achieving the Millennium Goals: The contribution of fulfilling the unmet need for family planning. USAID, Washington DC.

xxxi See Africa’s Demographic Challenges: http://www.berlin-

institut.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Afrika/Africas_demographic_challenges.pdf

xxxii Bryant, L, Carver, C, &Anage, A (2009). “Climate change and family planning: least-developed countries define the agenda.” WHO Bulletin, 87, pp.852-857. xxxiii (WWF Living Planet Report 2012).

xxxiv Beddington (undated) Food, energy, water and the climate: A perfect storm of global events? UK Government Office for Science.

xxxv UN General Assembly (1966) International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, 16 December 1966, Article 12.1.